Bear Market Risk Gauge V3

0% bullish • 50% neutral • 100% bearish

Hybrid live
50%
Neutral
Bullish / greenNeutral / yellowBearish / red
Refresh live data, then adjust the private/manual inputs.
Live data section uses public FRED CSV endpoints. Manual inputs stay on your phone/browser.

Live public data

Auto-fetched

These fields update from public FRED data when you tap refresh or open the tool with internet access.

High-yield credit spread
—
FRED: HY OAS
Initial claims stress
—
FRED: ICSA
Sources: FRED series BAMLH0A0HYM2 and ICSA. No brokerage login or password is used.

Manual inputs

You enter these

These data points usually come from paid/private platforms or your own market read, so the tool does not fetch them automatically.

50%
0 = analysts raising estimates broadly. 50 = mixed/flat. 100 = broad downward revisions.
50%
0 = supportive/positive gamma. 50 = neutral/choppy. 100 = short gamma, heavy put hedging, volatility expanding.
Advanced fallback inputs Optional
Use these if live data fails or you want to override FRED values.
50%
Rough guide: under 3.5% HY spread = bullish; 5% = caution; 7.5%+ = high stress.
50%
Rising claims over several weeks/months = bearish; stable low claims = bullish.

How the score is weighted

Notes

Educational tool only, not financial advice. This app reads public macro data and does not access your brokerage, bank, or private accounts. Do not enter passwords or account numbers.